Jessica Sharp 
The Time for Scenario Planning is Now
As crisis communications consultants, one of the first things we do when developing a comprehensive crisis plan is scenario planning. This process involves sitting down and listing every possible thing that could go wrong within an organization (yes, it’s as uncomfortable as it sounds). The goal is simple: once we’ve identified potential issues, we can create proactive plans to address them if they ever become a reality. While some executives might dismiss scenario planning as a theoretical exercise, recent events have shown that even unlikely scenarios can have a significant impact—and being prepared can make all the difference.
Two Types of Scenarios
Once we’ve brainstormed possible crises, they typically fall into two categories:
- Internal issues within your control: These are situations that originate inside the organization, such as corporate governance challenges, personnel-related issues, leadership transitions, misconduct allegations, cybersecurity breaches, and similar matters.
- External issues beyond your direct control: These include regulatory changes, executive orders, political shifts, economic downturns, public health emergencies, natural disasters—essentially anything outside the organization that could disrupt operations.
Recent executive orders targeting major law firms are a prime example of how external risks can emerge unexpectedly. While these actions have primarily impacted law firms, the ripple effects extend across industries. Organizations are now reassessing their vulnerability to similar executive actions, particularly those with:
- Government contracts or clearances
- Politically controversial positions or initiatives
- DEI programs that could come under scrutiny
- Connections to individuals or entities that might become political targets
- Public stances on divisive social or political issues
Instead of waiting to see how these developments unfold in your industry, now is the time to take action and plan for worst-case scenarios.
Implementing Effective Scenario Planning
Here’s how you can develop a robust scenario planning process:
Build Your Crisis Team
Gather a small group of organizational leaders who will form your crisis response team. This team should include representatives from HR, legal, operations, finance, IT, PR, and external consultants with crisis management expertise. Identified spokespersons should also be part of this group. Having diverse perspectives ensures you’ll cover all bases when identifying potential scenarios and crafting responses.
Identify Potential Scenarios
The team should then conduct a thorough brainstorming session to identify risks that could impact your organization. These might include things like:
- Regulatory changes affecting your industry
- Executive orders with operational implications
- Political shifts creating challenges for your business model
- Public perception issues tied to your values or initiatives
- Decisions by clients or partners driven by external pressures
Establish Organizational Positioning
Now, it’s time to determine where your organization stands on each scenario. This includes clarifying core values and non-negotiable principles while identifying areas where flexibility exists in your response approach. Consider what stakeholders—employees, clients, partners, investors, etc.—would need to know in each situation and evaluate potential financial, operational, and reputational impacts. It’s also important to establish thresholds for different levels of response so decision-making becomes faster and more aligned should a situation arise.
Develop a Response Framework
Once you’ve established organizational positioning for each scenario, create a roadmap for how to respond if one of these events occurs. Key elements to consider include:
- Internal messaging: Who needs to know what information internally? Through which channels will it be communicated?
- External messaging: What will you tell clients, investors, the media, etc.? Who will deliver these messages and through what channels?
- Operational contingency plans: How will you maintain business continuity during potential disruptions?
- Stakeholder management: How will you address concerns from employees, clients, partners, and other stakeholders?
- Spokesperson identification: Determine who will speak on behalf of the organization. Note that this person may vary depending on the situation.
Why Scenario Planning Matters
Recent events may feel unsettling or unpredictable, but they also present an opportunity to strengthen organizational resilience. By engaging in comprehensive scenario planning now, executives can navigate challenging situations with greater confidence and clarity when they arise.
The goal isn’t to predict every possible scenario but to build adaptive capacity within your organization. Teams that have practiced thinking through difficult situations ahead of time tend to respond more effectively during real crises. As we’ve seen with organizations that are facing unexpected challenges recently, preparation can mean the difference between an existential threat and a manageable disruption.
The time for scenario planning isn’t after a crisis hits—it’s now!
Read about Maven’s crisis communications services or reach out to learn more.
Posted In Crisis Communications